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學者:李克強訪問歐洲正當其時
Li's visit to Europe timely

[ 2014-10-10 09:39] 來源:中國日報網     字號 [] [] []  
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學者:李克強訪問歐洲正當其時

 

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will use his attendance at the Asia-Europe summit in Milan on Oct 16 and 17 as an opportunity to visit Germany and Italy. The ASEM summit is an important gathering of European and Asian leaders every two years to discuss global issues. It also provides a useful occasion for bilateral meetings. One of the important bilateral meetings for Premier Li in Milan will be a working dinner with outgoing European Union President Herman van Rompuy and Commission President José Manuel Barroso.

The Chinese Premier's visit takes place against slowing economic growth in Europe and China. While the worst phase of the eurozone crisis is over, there is still much to do to rekindle growth rates and tackle high unemployment. The European Commission estimates growth in the EU this year will barely reach 1 percent while youth unemployment in Spain and Greece is over 30 percent.

In these circumstances, the EU is looking to China to maintain its high growth rates and act as the driver for the global economy. Europe and China are each other's biggest trading partners so when one catches a cold it affects the other. European leaders are confident that Beijing knows what levers to adjust to continue China's remarkable growth. But they also know there will be no return to double digit growth. China has to tackle massive environmental problems, debt-ridden State-owned enterprises and local authorities, and root out corruption.

This will be a tall order, but as the Chinese economy slows there will be potential to increase cooperation with the EU. The EU has the know-how and technology, for example, to help China tackle its huge environmental problems. It also has useful experience in regional policy that may be helpful for China. Both sides need to work together for a successful outcome at the climate change conference in Paris next year.

Premier Li's meeting with van Rompuy and Barroso will be the last meeting with the current EU leaders. A new team is scheduled to take over in November - Donald Tusk as President of the European Council, Jean Claude Juncker as Commission President and Federica Mogherina as the High Representative for foreign and security policy. It will be a top priority to establish good contacts between China and the new EU leadership and proceed with the implementation of the 2020 Strategic Agenda. This vision document agreed earlier this year sets out areas in which Beijing and Brussels can work together in the next five years.

Next year will mark the 40th anniversary of EU-China relations and a host of events are planned to mark the occasion. These will include a special summit, several ministerial meetings, exhibitions, sporting and cultural events.

In the meantime negotiations continue for an important bilateral investment treaty. Premier Li is also keen on innovation, while the EU leaders will highlight the need for fair competition and the stability of financial markets.

The Milan dinner will also cover international issues, such as Iraq, Syria and Ukraine. Events in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region might cast a shadow over the meeting, but it seems the situation has calmed now.

In Italy, Li will meet with Prime Minister Matteo Renzi who has made a name for himself as an energetic promoter of reform. But he now needs to follow up his rhetoric with deeds. The Italian economy remains weak and Renzi will be looking to China for a boost in investment. China has the capital to invest in European infrastructure. It is already buying into nuclear power in the UK and ports in Greece. It has also established a 16+1 framework to boost investment with Eastern Europe.

In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel remains the country's and Europe's dominant politician. As the paymaster of the EU, she has imposed austerity on most EU member states whether they like it or not. Li will be looking to maintain and boost the excellent bilateral relations between China and Germany. Li will also speak at an important business summit in Hamburg where the main theme is improving economic relations between the EU and China.

In between Germany and Italy Premier Li will visit Russia for talks with President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Russia and the EU are at odds over Ukraine. Both will be seeking Li's support for their respective viewpoints.

In the absence of a second full EU-China summit this year because of the change in the EU's leadership, Li's dinner with van Rompuy and Barroso should provide a welcome boost to the bilateral relationship.

中國總理李克強將借10月16到17號在米蘭參加亞歐峰會之機訪問德國和意大利。亞歐峰會每兩年舉辦一屆,亞歐各國首腦將齊聚討論全球性問題。這也為進行雙邊會議提供了一個有利場合。李克強總理在米蘭的重要雙邊會議之一就是要和行將離職的歐洲理事會主席赫爾曼·范龍佩(Herman van Rompuy)以及歐盟委員會主席若澤·曼努埃爾·巴羅佐(José Manuel Barroso)共進晚餐。

李克強總理此次訪問主要是為了應對中歐經濟增速放緩的問題。雖然已經挺過了歐元區危機最壞的時候,但是重振經濟和扭轉高失業率仍然任重道遠。歐盟委員會預計今年整個歐盟區的經濟增長率只能勉強達到1%,而西班牙和希臘的青年失業率將超過30%。

在這種情況下,歐盟希望中國作為全球經濟的引擎能繼續保持高經濟增長率。歐盟和中國互為彼此最大的貿易伙伴,雙方利益休戚相關。歐盟領導人相信中國方面了解該采用何種手段讓中國經濟持續發展。但歐盟也很清楚中國經濟增長率不會再回到兩位數了。中國需要處理嚴重的環境問題以及國有企業和地方政府的赤字問題,根除腐敗。

這將是一項艱巨的任務,但在中國經濟增長放緩之際,中國和歐盟的合作將帶來新的機遇。歐盟有經驗和技術能幫助中國解決譬如環境惡化方面的問題。歐盟區域政策的經驗也能幫到中國。雙邊需要在明年巴黎舉行的氣候變化大會上加強雙邊合作,促進共同發展。

李克強總理會見范龍佩和巴羅索的會議被安排在會見歐盟領袖的最后階段。11月,新的團隊將會接班——由唐納德·圖斯克(Donald Tusk)擔任歐洲理事會主席,簡·克勞德·容克(Jean Claude Juncker)擔任歐盟委員會主席,費德麗卡·莫格麗娜(Federica Mogherina)擔任外交和安全政策高級代表。新歐盟領導人將把繼續與中國發展良好關系以及實施2020戰略目標放在首要位置。這份今年早些時候達成的協議規劃出中歐未來五年合作的前景文檔。(雙方將把建立中國與歐盟新領導之間的良好關系以及繼續實施《中歐合作2020戰略規劃》放在首要位置。這份今年早些時候達成的前景協議制定了北京和布魯塞爾在未來5年內的合作領域。)

明年是中歐建交40周年,屆時將會舉行一系列活動記錄這一歷史性的時刻,包括一次特殊峰會,幾個部長級會議、展覽,以及體育和文化交流活動。

同時雙方將繼續就一項重大的雙邊投資協議展開談判。李克強總理熱衷于創新,同時歐盟領導人則強調平等競爭和穩定金融市場。

米蘭的晚宴上還會談及重大國際問題,比如伊拉克、敘利亞和烏克蘭問題。香港特別行政區的事件為晚宴蒙上了一層陰影,不過該事件現在似乎已經平息了。

李克強總理將會在意大利會見總理馬泰奧·倫齊(Matteo Renzi),一個以精力充沛的革命者形象著稱的人。但他需要將語言轉化成行動。意大利經濟仍然疲軟,倫齊希望中國的投資能成為經濟增長的助推器。中國有資本投資歐洲的基礎設施,中國已經參股英國核電站項目,并收購了希臘最大港口,此外還建立了16+1合作框架促進對東歐的投資。

德國總理安吉拉·默克爾(Angela Merkel)仍是該國和整個歐洲最強有力的政客,(手握財政大權的)她可以不顧各國意見,將緊縮政策強行施加給每個歐盟成員國。李克強總理此次訪問將尋求保持中德雙邊良好合作的態勢。李克強總理還將在漢堡舉行的經濟峰會上就促進中歐經濟合作發表重要講話。

在訪問德國和意大利之間,李克強總理還將訪問俄羅斯并會見俄羅斯總統弗拉迪米爾·普京(Vladimir Putin)以及總理德米特里·梅德韋杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)。俄羅斯和歐盟在烏克蘭問題上存在爭端,雙方持不同觀點,但都尋求李克強總理的支持。

由于今年歐盟領導人變化,中歐峰會第二次將無法如期舉行,這樣李克強總理與范龍佩以及巴羅索的晚宴應給雙邊關系起到重大促進作用。

作者弗雷澤·卡梅倫(Fraser Cameron) 為智庫歐盟-亞洲中心(EU-Asia Centre )主管,本文刊登于10月9日出版的《中國日報》。

(譯者 chuckbupt 編輯 丹妮)

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學者:李克強訪問歐洲正當其時 學者:李克強訪問歐洲正當其時

 

 
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